ELKHART -- While unemployment numbers for Elkhart city and county remain in the midteens, relief may be on the horizon.

For the last two months, city and county rates have held steady. The city of Elkhart posted a 17.4 percent unemployment rate in October, down from 17.8 percent in September, while Elkhart County's unemployment rate was 14.9 percent, down from 15.1 percent.

But Morton Marcus, director emeritus of the Indiana Business Research Center, thinks it's only a matter of time before city and county unemployment rates drop even further -- potentially into the single digits.

"We're beginning to see some reabsorption," he said. "In effect, we've stabilized."

Marcus said a decrease in layoffs in concert with hiring and recalls resulted in the slow decline in unemployment rates. He said certain scenarios could send the numbers back up, but he expects they'll continue to fall.

Some who have left the work force may be encouraged by the news of fewer layoffs and more job opportunities and decide to start looking for work. This could cause a spike in unemployment figures, Marcus said. But those figures should be taken with a grain of salt.

The unemployment figures are gathered from a relatively small number of Elkhart families and workers, Marcus said. They serve primarily as an indicator of what's going on, not a precise head count.

Marcus said the area's unemployment rate is high because of the hit to recreational vehicle manufacturers, but he also said the area isn't as dependent on RVs as people think.

Marcus' rough estimate is that RVs and manufactured housing account for about 25 percent of the county's earnings. Manufacturing, he said, accounts for around 56 percent.

Marcus said if Elkhart County was as dependent on RVs as many people think, unemployment rates would be higher. What is important, he said, is for manufacturers to learn the importance of diversification, and indications are that they have been.

So what lies ahead?

Marcus' guess is that, while it may take a few more months for momentum to build, the area's unemployment rate eventually will fall faster than the state's, which in October was 9.4 percent, up from 9.2 percent in September. In fact, Marcus said it wouldn't surprise him if a year from now Elkhart's unemployment rate was at 10 to 11 percent, if not lower.

October unemployment rates

Indiana counties with the highest unemployment rates:
1. Elkhart — 14.9 percent
2. Noble — 14.7 percent
3. LaGrange — 14.4 percent
4. Fayette — 13.4 percent
5. Steuben — 12.7 percent
Indiana cities with the highest unemployment rates:
1. Elkhart — 17.4 percent
2. Goshen — 14.4 percent
3. Kokomo — 13.4 percent
4. East Chicago — 12 percent
5. Marion — 11.9 percent

Source: Indiana Department of Workforce Development

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